[WSMDiscuss] US military determined to overpower China / China is capitalizing on the Covid-19 crisis to rewrite the rules

[Brian K Murphy]

https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/us-military-hellbent-on-trying-to-overpower-china/ <https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/us-military-hellbent-on-trying-to-overpower-china/>
US military hellbent on trying to overpower China
While some in China are urging against an arms race, relentless US saber-rattling makes a global peace movement crucial

by Vijay Prashad, Asia Times, May 13, 2020
> On April 1, Admiral Philip Davidson, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told the US Congress that he would like $20 billion to create a robust military cordon that runs from California to Japan and down the Pacific Rim of Asia. His proposal <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-Summary-fullscreen-from-embed/fgh6xb/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E>, “Regain the Advantage,” pointed to the “renewed threat we face from Great Power Competition.… Without a valid and convincing conventional deterrent, China and Russia will be emboldened to take action in the region to supplant US interests.”
> 
> The real focus is China. In January 2019, acting US defense secretary Patrick Shanahan told <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/e-secretary-says-idUSL1N1Z20JA/fgh6xd/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> US military officials that the problem is “China, China, China.” This has been the key focus of all of US President Donald Trump’s nominees for defense secretary, whether it be Shanahan or the current chief Mark Esper.
> 
> Esper cannot open his mouth without blaming China; he recently told <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/iu-potere-in-italia-1-38799544/fgh6xg/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> the Italian paper La Stampa that China is using the Covid-19 emergency to push its advantage through “malign” forces such as Huawei and by sending aid to Italy. As far as Trump and Esper are concerned, China and – to a lesser extent –Russia are to be contained by the United States with armed force.
> 
> The missile gap?
> 
> US Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican, has pushed the view that Beijing’s military modernization program has created a missile gap in China’s favor. In March 2018, Cotton asked Admiral Harry Harris, then commander of the US Pacific Command (now US ambassador to South Korea), about China’s missiles.
> 
> “We are at a disadvantage with regard to China today in the sense that China has ground-based ballistic missiles that threaten our basing in the western Pacific and our ships,” Harris told <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/weapons-treaty-inf-withdrawal-/fgh6xj/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> Congress.
> 
> To remedy this, Harris suggested that the United States exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which Trump did <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/nge-nuclear-forces-inf-treaty-/fgh6xl/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> in early 2019 (Trump blamed Russian non-compliance, but it was clear that the real target was this fear of a Chinese missile advantage). In August 2019, the US tested an intermediate-range missile, signaling that its intentions long preceded its withdrawal from the INF.
> 
> In March 2019, Cotton went to the Heritage Foundation to say that the United States should start production of medium-range ballistic missiles, which should be deployed on bases at the US territory of Guam and on the territories of US allies; these missiles should directly threaten China.
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> “Beijing has stockpiled thousands of missiles that can target our allies, our bases, our ships, and our citizens throughout the Pacific,” Cotton said <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-p-speech-id-1080/fgh6xn/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> in characteristic hyperbole. Exaggeration is central to people like Cotton; for them, fear-mongering is the way to produce policy, and facts are inconvenient.
> 
> The United States has used the concept of the “missile gap” before. John F Kennedy used it for his 1958 presidential campaign, even though it is likely he knew <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/article-523-1/fgh6xq/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> that it was false to say that the USSR had more missiles than the United States. Little has changed since then.
> 
> In November 2018, before the US left the INF, Admiral Davidson spoke at a think-tank in Washington on “China’s Power.” In 2015, Davidson said <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/Cgb-ObO-IlQ-t-974/fgh6xs/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E>, his predecessor Harry Harris had joked that the islands off the coast of the People’s Republic of China were a “Great Wall of Sand”; now, said Davidson, these had become a “Great Wall of SAMs,” referring to surface-to-air missiles.
> 
> Davidson, from the military side, and Cotton, from the civilian side, began to say over and over again that China had a military advantage by the “missile gap,” a concept that required no careful investigation.
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> The United States has the largest military force in the world. In April, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/ys-sipri-reaching-1917-billion/fgh6xv/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> that the US military budget rose by 5.3% over the previous year to total $732 billion; the increase over one year was by itself equal to the entire military budget of Germany.
> 
> China, meanwhile, spent $261 billion on its military, lifting its budget by 5.1%. The United States has <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/factsheets-unitedstatesprofile/fgh6xx/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> 6,185 nuclear warheads, while China <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/factsheets-chinaprofile/fgh6xz/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> has 290. Only five countries <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/ental-iran-pakistan-india-html/fgh6y2/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> in the world have missiles that can strike any country on Earth: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. Whether it be in terms of intercontinental weapons or through US air power, there is no doubt that China simply does not possess a military advantage over the United States.
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> Every known inventory of weapons shows that the United States has a much greater capacity to wreak havoc in a military confrontation against anyone, including China; but the US now understands that while it can bomb a country to smithereens, it can no longer subordinate all countries.
> 
> Withdrawal
> 
> The US Navy is both overstretched and threatened. Its two Pacific-based carriers, USS Ronald Reagan and USS Theodore Roosevelt, are in trouble; USS Reagan is in Japan, where it is being repaired, while USS Roosevelt is in Guam, with its crew devastated by Covid-19.
> 
> Meanwhile, the US has sent <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/rs-to-fight-a-deadly-pandemic-/fgh6y4/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> an aircraft-carrier group to threaten Venezuela using the excuse of counter-narcotics. Threatening several countries far apart from each other makes it difficult for the US to focus its superior military power against any one country.
> 
> Missile capacities shown by Iran and by China have meant that America’s continuous bomber presence at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam has been withdrawn. These bombers are now at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota and Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana.
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> General Timothy Ray of the US Air Force Global Strike Command put a brave face on these withdrawals, saying <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/ploy-bombers-across-the-globe-/fgh6y6/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> they gave the US greater flexibility. The real reason for the bombers leaving Qatar and Guam is that the US military fears that these strategic assets are in harm’s way.
> 
> Neither Iran nor China has the capacity to defeat the US in a military confrontation. But alongside both of their borders, Iran and China have the capacity to strike US targets and US allies. This capacity hampers the US ability to establish the complete subordination of these countries. It is this local power developed by China and Iran that the United States wants to extinguish.
> 
> ‘Regain the advantage’
> 
> Admiral Davidson’s April report <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-Summary-fullscreen-from-embed/fgh6xb/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> calls for “forward-based, rotational joint forces” as the “most credible way to demonstrate US commitment and resolve to potential adversaries.”
> 
> What the Indo-Pacific Command means is that rather than have a fixed base that is vulnerable to attack, the US will fly its bombers into bases on the soil of its allies in the Indo-Pacific network (Australia, India and Japan) as well as others in the region (South Korea, for instance); the bombers, he suggests, will be better protected there. China will still be threatened, but Chinese missiles will – so the theory goes – find it more difficult to threaten mobile US assets.
> 
> Davidson’s report has a stunning science-fiction quality to it. There is a desire for the creation of “highly survivable, precision-strike networks” <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-Summary-fullscreen-from-embed/fgh6xb/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> that run along the Pacific Rim, including missiles of various kinds and radars in Palau, in Hawaii, and in space. He asks for vast amounts of money to develop a military that is already very powerful.
> 
> Furthermore, the US is committed to the development of anti-space weapons, autonomous weapons, glide vehicles, hypersonic missiles, and offensive cyber weapons – all meant to destabilize missile defense techniques and to overpower any adversary. Such developments presage a new arms race that will be very expensive and that will further destabilize the world order.
> 
> The United States has unilaterally increased a buildup around China and has ramped up threatening rhetoric against Beijing. Anxiety about a possible war against China imposed by the United States is growing <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/content-1187947-shtml/fgh6y8/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> within China, although sober voices are asking the Chinese government not to get drawn into an arms race with the US. Nonetheless, the threats are credible, and the desire to build some form of deterrence is growing.
> 
> The absence of a strong world peace movement with the capacity to prevent this buildup by the United States is of considerable concern for the planet. The need for such a movement <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/en-/fgh6yb/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> could not be greater.
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> This article was produced by Globetrotter <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/globetrotter-/fgh6yd/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E>, a project of the Independent Media Institute, which provided it to Asia Times.
> 
> Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at Globetrotter. He is the chief editor of LeftWord Books <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/y976jlvu/fgh6yg/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> and the director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/2020-05-12/fgh6yj/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E>. He has written more than 20 books, including The Darker Nations <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/1595583424--tag-alternorg08-20/fgh6yl/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E> and The Poorer Nations <https://go.ind.media/e/546932/1781681589--tag-alternorg08-20/fgh6yn/618561221?h=p6ivtupPHxlmgGbBG8l0UN84dRxvVlK5-yK2xJw8r3E>. His latest book is Washington Bullets, with an introduction by Evo Morales Ayma.
> 
> ****************
> 
https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/the-rise-of-the-chinese-world-order/ <https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/the-rise-of-the-chinese-world-order/>
The rise of the Chinese World Order
For better or worse, China is capitalizing on the Covid-19 crisis to rewrite the rules

by Ravi Kant, Asia Times, May 12, 2020
> “When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills.” – Chinese proverb
> 
> The above proverb tells a lot about the Chinese mindset. At a time when the whole world is grappling with the Covid-19 pandemic, away from the media glare, China is capitalizing on the situation. It is using this moment to expand its global leadership and advertise its governance model across the world. 
> 
> The Chinese are rewriting the codes of the international world order through new strategic chokepoints. Chinese leaders have taken decisive and aggressive steps in the last few months to gain an advantage over all the strategic opportunities presented by the rest of the world, and especially the US, amid the Covid-19 crisis. 
> 
> A month back, Beijing established two new research stations in the contested South China Sea. At the same time, China has launched a maritime law-enforcement campaign, “Blue Sea 2020,” to run from April 1 to November 30. This has increased the chances of confrontation in the region as the project will target any violation of Chinese laws in sectors such as oil exploration, marine coastal construction, and deep-sea mining. 
> 
> In the current scenario, this can only be seen as a way to target opposing claimants to territory in the sea and to conduct unlawful “law enforcement” operations in waters claimed by Southeast Asian states such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
> 
> China’s belligerent behavior, including military maneuvers and large-scale deployment of military assets to the region, has increased the chances of serious standoffs with other claimant states as well as raising serious questions over whether the Chinese respect international world order any more. But apart from the South China Sea, they are also creating new strategic chokepoints with the help of technology.  
> 
> The 5G revolution
> 
> The Internet played an important role in increasing US soft power and public diplomacy in the 20th century. The Americans were the key architects of the system, so much of the standardization or structure of the Internet was determined by them, and the rest of the world had to follow their rules. 
> 
> US corporations like Google, Amazon and Facebook helped the Americans to control much of the Internet traffic. With the help of this data and the National Security Agency, they built the best surveillance system to protect their world order. 
> 
> But in February this year, amid the Covid-19 crisis, the world saw a new China. Patrol robots equipped with fifth-generation (5G) technology are being deployed to monitor mask-wearing and body temperatures in public places. In Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 was first detected, hundreds of driverless vans were used to sanitize the streets. 
> 
> These are a few examples of how China has harnessed ultrafast 5G networks and its manufacturing supply chain to fight the virus and why the rest of the world is still battling to keep up. The Chinese have pulled ahead of the West in a key technological battleground. 
> 
> This is a clear demonstration of how effective the Chinese system has become and what other countries lack. China’s demonstration of 5G is a glimpse of what future Chinese smart cities will look like as well as a roadmap for their ambitious Silk Road project. 
> 
> More than a decade ago, none of the Chinese telecom companies came close to global standards in providing service to their customers. But today they are competing with their Western counterparts and in some areas outclassing them. 
> 
> One company that is a major bone of contention in US-China relations is Huawei. In less than a decade, it has become the world’s largest telecom equipment company. It has built almost 70% of Africa’s 4G networks, and it has taken the lead in the race of developing fifth-generation mobile telephony. 
> 
> According to a ranking compiled by IPlytics, Huawei is in the lead in 5G patents, with more than 3,000 patent applications filed in 2019, of which 1,200 have been granted. It is playing a decisive role in setting end-to-end 5G standards. So, currently, it is simply impossible to exclude China from the process of setting global standards for 5G.  
> 
> China is aiming to build and operate at least 600,000 5G stations across the country by the end of this year. All 300 prefecture-level cities in China are expected to be covered by a 5G network by the end of 2020, according to the Ministry of Industrial and Information Technology.
> 
> Automated economy
> 
> The idea behind the rapid expansion of 5G services in China is to test and reboot the economy through industrial automation and unleash new consumption potential to offset the pandemic’s impact. 
> 
> According to the World Economic Forum, intelligent connectivity enabled by 5G will act as a catalyst for social-economic growth in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. China wants to be the torchbearer of 4IR by making its economy totally based on automation. 
> 
> Half of all industrial robots sold in China will be domestically made by 2020. In 2014, the Chinese started a campaign for an automated economy with an overall aim gradually to replace manual labor with robots. The highly industrialized provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are the first to introduce it on a massive scale. 
> 
> Currently, China is working on a war-footing level to be a fully automated economy under its flagship program “Made in China 2025.” 
> 
> With the global economy still in turmoil due to the Covid-19 pandemic, China is at a unique position to lead the subsequent recovery. According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China will be more focused on its vast domestic market and home-grown technologies and improving its citizens’ lives. The Chinese are reorienting their strategy from a low-cost manufacturing economy toward more advanced technology like aircraft, telecommunications, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence.
> 
> Meanwhile, China has kept its monetary policy quite normal, which clearly indicates the sound fundamentals of the domestic economy will remain unchanged in the medium to long run despite the short-term slowdown due to the pandemic. The Chinese have sufficient policy space to support steady economic growth if needed. 
> 
> There is a strong indication that China will have a V-shaped recovery, largely thanks to its strong supply chain and the government’s major focus on creating demand by providing excess liquidity through interest-rate cuts. 
> 
> But for the rest of the world, the good news is yet to come. The International Monetary Fund recently said the global economic outlook had worsened since its last forecast. The US may slip into recession for at least two quarters and some countries will face a solvency crisis and will need debt write-downs rather than just payment postponements. 
> 
> The US response to the Covid-19 crisis has been less than satisfactory, while China’s success in battling the virus and its outreach to poor nations may give it an opportunity to fill the shoes the rival superpower. But it would be immature to assume that there is not going to be any shift in the global order. 
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> 
******
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Twitter:  @BrianKMurphy2 


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